The Road to Nerdvana

Published January 6, 2006

By C. W. Oberleitner

If it's January this must be Macworld San Francisco or the International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, baby.

For most kids of all ages, December, with its bounty of holiday booty, is generally the most wonderful time of year, to borrow a phrase. For the grownup geek, however, there are few times of year that can compete with the first half of the first month of the New Year for pure unbridled starry-eyed wonderment. For it is in early January that the siren's song of new tech gadgets and toys can be heard wafting from San Francisco's Moscone Convention Center and throughout hotel ballrooms and the convention halls of Las Vegas.

Yes, it's once again time for Macworld San Francisco (MWSF) and the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES).

Googles and iPods and Bill Gates, Oh My!

CES is the world's largest annual tradeshow of consumer technology and America's largest annual tradeshow of any kind. It virtually and literally takes over the city of Las Vegas. It is so large that it often forces attendees and tourists into lodgings in surrounding areas. CES and MWSF often overlap, forcing tech junkies to choose between shows. In previous years, real diehards have been known to commute back and forth between San Francisco and Las Vegas.

This year, it's possible for geeks who can't get enough electronic goody-ogling to easily attend both shows. CES began Thursday, January 5, and runs through Sunday, January 8. MWSF begins Monday, January 9, and continues through Friday, January 13.

To be sure, both gatherings offer a myriad of seminars, panel discussions, and workshops, but the real reason most people travel to these conferences is to be able to walk the exhibition floors, lay hands on all the neat stuff, and, of course, harass flesh and blood company reps, one of the last un-outsourced jobs in tech and electronics.

CES features one pre-show and five regularly scheduled keynote addresses. Consumer electronics manufacturers around the world are anxiously waiting to hear what tech giants Microsoft, Google, and Yahoo have to say about their industry moving into the consumer electronics arena.

During a Wednesday pre-show keynote address, Microsoft chairman and founder Bill Gates introduced the long overdue next edition of his company's operating system (OS), called Windows Vista. Previously known by the code name Longhorn, Vista was due in 2004. According to Gates, who demonstrated a preview edition of the new OS, "We're going to ship this by the end of the year, and so we've got a few months here. We'll continue to refine the user interface, get feedback, make sure we've got this exactly right."

The Window's OS hasn't received a major upgrade since 2001, when Microsoft released Windows XP. In part, analysts attribute last year's drop in Microsoft's growth to the lack of a significant Windows upgrade. Additionally, analysts have also seen advances and refinements made by search engine cum portal Google, along with Apple's leading position in legal music and video downloading, as menacing Microsoft's dominance of the tech world.

Perhaps as a means of keeping users from switching to other software and or operating systems before Vista arrives some twelve months from now, parts of Gates presentation featured what will be Vista's built-in search and digital photo advancements.

In a statement seen by some as a shot across Apple's bow, Gates announced companies, including Toshiba that will make portable video and audio players that use the Windows operating system.

Gates also announced and demonstrated advances in Windows Media Center that will allow home users to record live television and transfer music and video around the house. It will also permit home users to connect to high-definition cable TV without a set-top box.

Next up in the CES keynote roster will be Gary Shapiro, President and CEO of Consumer Electronics Association (CEA); Sir Howard Stringer, Chairman and CEO of Sony Corp; Paul Otellini, CEO of Intel Corp; Terry Semel, Chairman and CEO of Yahoo! Inc.; and Larry Page, Cofounder and President of Products, Google.

Speculation runs high that Google, heretofore an online software-only company, is about to get into the hardware business. Despite repeated denials by Google executives, CES attendees remain convinced that Google cofounder Larry Page will use his keynote address to announce a Google PC that won't rely on the Windows operating system. The inexpensive box, thought to be about the size of an Apple Mac mini, is rumored to cost around $200 and will be sold, at first, only in Wal-Mart stores.

Industry analysts are also keeping an eye and ear out for what Yahoo! Chairman and CEO Terry Semel will have to say. Semel, previously chairman and co-chief executive of Warner Brothers, was brought onboard Yahoo! for the express purpose of expanding the online giant from content provider to content creator as well.

In other exhibit floor news, this year's show is expected to see the continuing metamorphosis of the cell phone into an ever-evolving, portable personal entertainment center capable of delivering news, weather, sports, email, text messaging, the Internet, global positioning, television programming, and feature films to the palm of your hand.

Speaking of personal electronic devices, that old standard the family television is expected to become even more complicated and confusing in 2006 as vendors continue to ratchet up the number of mind numbing, acronym-laden features on new TVs. All of this brought on by the fast approaching, federally-mandated switch from standard broadcast television to High Definition Television, or HDTV.

Think trying to figure out the difference between an HDTV-ready and HDTV-capable television is confusing? Try figuring out the difference between interlaced and progressively-scanned 720p, 1080i, and 1080p resolution sets, and which ones can and cannot receive signals that match their resolution capability. Then, there's the matter of choosing what type of HDTV you want: CRT, DLP, LCD, Plasma, and, soon to come, SED.

Apple's iPod is also expected to be a big part of the CES exhibition floor. Vendors, hopping to cash in on the phenomenal success of Apple's little jukebox to go, are expected to announce a dizzying array of Pod-compatible products. Everything from iPod clothing, sleeves, carriers, connectors, amplifiers, adapters, and wireless whatchamacallits of all kinds are expected to be on display.

From the Faithful to Pod People

Speaking of Apple's ubiquitous multidimensional music/video player, if last year's Macworld San Francisco is any indicator, this annual love fest of the Mac faithful may soon have to be renamed iPodWorld.

True, MWSF has always been more of a consumer/end-user show; however, the ratio of iPod third-party vendors to Mac vendors at last year's show was approaching majority as this once mighty conference and exhibition contracted from two of the Moscone Convention Center's exhibition halls to one. And, unlike Las Vegas during CES, if you'd like to plan an early winter getaway next week in the city by the bay, you should have no trouble at all finding hotel accommodations.

Speaking of last year, in the weeks leading up to MWSF 2005, both print and online Mac media were brimming with stories about what Apple's Barnumesque CEO Steve Jobs would be unveiling during his always sold-out keynote address. So prolific, and accurate, were these reports that shortly after "iSteve" returned to the company's HQ in Cupertino, Apple's lawyers released a fusillade of lawsuits against what it considered to be the most egregious bean spillers. Among others, the list included one of its own developers, whom Apple deemed to have transgressed upon its non-disclosure agreement.

All of which goes a long way to explaining why there are so few speculative stories in the Mac Media about what rabbits Jobs will be pulling out of Apple's hat during this year's MWSF 2006 keynote address. There are, of course, a few good guesses out there.

Undaunted after loosing round one in one such lawsuit to Apple's lawyer's, ThinkSecret.com last December 19 reported that, among other things, Jobs will take the wraps off yet another iPod upgrade at MWSF 2006.

MWSF 2005 saw the introduction of the iPod shuffle. February brought the introduction of a new iPod mini. In June, Apple merged the iPod and iPod photo lines. September saw the end of the iPod mini and introduction of the flash memory-based iPod nano and version 5 of the iTunes Music Store. Just a little over four weeks later, and about a month after telling the press he didn't believe in the viability of a hand-held video device, Jobs rolled out the new digital video-capable iPod and version 6 of the iTunes Music Store, which features downloadable video programming from Disney-owned ABC TV and the Disney Channel, along with a series of Pixar shorts and library of music videos.

Nineteen days after the introduction of video download sales at the iTunes Music Store, Apple announced it had sold over 1 million videos. In December, NBC Universal began offering several of its primetime, late night cable programs, along with classic NBC television series via iTunes. On Tuesday of this week, the Walt Disney Company announced that it was adding a big batch of new programming to Apple's iTunes Music Store, including content from ESPN and ABC Sports.

Recently, Apple watchers have noted the disappearance of 1GB iPod shuffles from dealer shelves and Apple's own stores. This has fueled speculation that the iPod shuffle line might be bumped up to 2GB of flash memory. There has been no word, however, on how this might affect the iPod nano line, which starts at the 2GB level.

In addition to its December 19 iPod prediction, ThinkSecret.com also reported that Apple would relaunch its popular Mac mini line of personal computers. The new minis will become the digital hubs they were originally intended to be and include a built-in iPod dock. The new Mac mini project, code-named Kaleidoscope, will feature an Intel processor and include both Front Row 2.0 and TiVo-like DVR functionality.

According to ThinkSecret.com, it is not known whether the Mac mini will feature the ability to record video right out of the box or whether an add-on will be required to convert the Mac mini into a digital media center command center. Either way, given Apple's obvious desire to stay two jumps ahead of the competition (i.e., Microsoft), you can be sure they will do everything possible to make the Mac mini as dominate in home media management as the iPod is in portable media management.

It is believed that Apple plans to use Intel's new Yonah line of processors in its first Intel Inside computers. Because of uncertainty over the volume of Yonah processors Intel will initially be able to make available to Apple, there has been speculation among some analysts that the first of the new Mac minis will not feature Intel chips. According to these sources, Apple will continue to use some form of the PowerPC processor in the first of these new Macs, eventually migrating them to Intel processors later in the year.

The Yonah processor is also fueling speculation that Apple might announce a new lineup of Intel-powered iBook laptops, at speeds of up to 1.5GHz, at MWSF. When Steve Jobs first announced that Apple would migrate Macs to Intel processors, it was generally thought that the high-end PowerBooks, which significantly lag their Windows counterparts in clock speed, would be among the first Macs to be converted.

Again according to ThinkSecret.com:

The dual-core version of Yonah, which sources say will be marketed as Centrino Duo, will be available in a low-voltage version… at speeds of 1.66GHz, 1.83GHz, 2.0GHz, and 2.16GHz.

It is the uncertainty over the availability of these faster versions of Yonah, along with the time required to integrate it into the PowerBook's more complex design, which has led Apple watchers to predict that an Intel-powered iBook will debut at MWSF, while new Yonah-based PowerBooks may not debut until later in the quarter.

Other Apple rumors include an updating of its iLife suite of applications. Announcements of new iLife updates are a regular feature of MWSF keynote addresses.

Then, there are the usual suspects and fanatic favorites. The recent announcement by Motorola that it will not include support for the iTunes Music store in its upcoming ROKR E1 cell phone has once again ignited speculation that the Mac maker will finally introduce the world to the iPhone, something Steve Jobs has said he will never do. Just as he said there was no market for handheld video devices.

AppleInsider.com is reporting that Apple plans to expand its operations in the consumer electronics market with the introduction of several new iPod companion, as opposed to accessory, products:

One such product… is an iPod boombox "unlike anything seen in boombox world" and strikingly different from "anything Apple has released in the past."

It's not known whether the new line of iPod companion products will be announced at MWSF, CES, or sometime later in the year with yet another version of the iPod.

One thing is known for certain. With the introduction of the iPod, Apple has become to personal media devices what Microsoft is to personal computers, and they like being the market leaders and plan on keeping it that way.

[Join us next week for on-the-spot coverage of Macworld San Francisco 2006 as o-meon.com correspondent C. W. Oberleitner reports on events from the Moscone Convention Center.—Editor]

Site List

CES The International Consumer Electronics Show

CNET Understanding HDTV and CES coverage

Macworld San Francisco

Think Secret the Road to Expo

MacRumors No iTunes Support in ROKR E1

AppleInsider iPod "boombox" planned

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